5
ΠΠ΅ΡΠ΅ΡΠΌΠΈΠ½ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π½Π°Ρ ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ° (deterministic system) β ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ°, Π²ΡΡ ΠΎΠ΄Ρ ΠΊΠΎΡΠΎΡΠΎΠΉ (ΡΠ΅Π·ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΡ Π΄Π΅ΠΉΡΡΠ²ΠΈΡ, ΠΊΠΎΠ½Π΅ΡΠ½ΡΠ΅ ΡΠΎΡΡΠΎΡΠ½ΠΈΡ ΠΈ Ρ. ΠΏ.) ΠΎΠ΄Π½ΠΎΠ·Π½Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎ ΠΎΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»ΡΡΡΡΡ ΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°Π½Π½ΡΠΌΠΈ Π½Π° Π½Π΅Π΅ ΡΠΏΡΠ°Π²Π»ΡΡΡΠΈΠΌΠΈ Π²ΠΎΠ·Π΄Π΅ΠΉΡΡΠ²ΠΈΡΠΌΠΈ. Π’Π°ΠΊΠΈΠ΅ ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΡ, ΠΏΠΎ ΠΊΠ»Π°ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΈΠΈ Π‘Ρ. ΠΠΈΡΠ°, ΠΌΠΎΠ³ΡΡ Π±ΡΡΡ ΠΏΡΠΎΡΡΡΠΌΠΈ (Π½Π°ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅Ρ, ΠΎΠΊΠΎΠ½Π½Π°Ρ Π·Π°Π΄Π²ΠΈΠΆΠΊΠ°) ΠΈ ΡΠ»ΠΎΠΆΠ½ΡΠΌΠΈ (Π½Π°ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅Ρ, ΡΠΈΡΡΠΎΠ²Π°Ρ ΡΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡΡΠΎΠ½Π½Π°Ρ Π²ΡΡΠΈΡΠ»ΠΈΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½Π°Ρ ΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΠ½Π°). ΠΠ΅ΡΠ΅ΡΠΌΠΈΠ½ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π½Π°Ρ ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ° ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠΈΠ²ΠΎΠΏΠΎΡΡΠ°Π²Π»ΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ Π²Π΅ΡΠΎΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅, Π²ΡΡ ΠΎΠ΄Ρ ΠΊΠΎΡΠΎΡΠΎΠΉ Π»ΠΈΡΡ ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΠΉΠ½ΡΠΌ ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°Π·ΠΎΠΌ, Π° Π½Π΅ ΠΎΠ΄Π½ΠΎΠ·Π½Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎ Π·Π°Π²ΠΈΡΡΡ ΠΎΡ Π²Ρ ΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ². β ΠΡΠΈΠΌ. Π½Π°ΡΡΠ½. ΡΠ΅Π΄.
6
The Problem of Deducing the Climate from Governing Equations.
7
Feigenbaum cascade.
8
Π Π΅ΠΊΡΡΡΠΈΠ²Π½Π°Ρ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Ρ (recursive model) β Π΄ΠΈΠ½Π°ΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠ°Ρ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Ρ, ΠΎΠ±Π»Π°Π΄Π°ΡΡΠ°Ρ ΠΌΠ°ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠΌ ΡΠ²ΠΎΠΉΡΡΠ²ΠΎΠΌ ΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΡΡΠΈΠΈ, Ρ. Π΅. Π΅ΡΠ»ΠΈ Π΄Π°Π½Ρ, Π½Π°ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅Ρ, Π²ΡΠ΅ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΠ΅ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ Π΄ΠΎ ΠΌΠΎΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΠ° (tβ 1), ΡΠΎ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Ρ ΠΎΠ±Π΅ΡΠΏΠ΅ΡΠΈΠ²Π°Π΅Ρ ΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΎΠ΄Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π·Π° Π΄ΡΡΠ³ΠΈΠΌ Π·Π½Π°ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΡ Π΄Π»Ρ t, ΠΏΠΎ Π½ΠΈΠΌ Π΄Π»Ρ (t+1) ΠΈ Ρ. Π΄. β ΠΡΠΈΠΌ. Π½Π°ΡΡΠ½. ΡΠ΅Π΄.
9
Π’Π°ΠΊΠΆΠ΅ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ½ΠΎ ΡΠΊΠ°Π·Π°ΡΡ: Π² ΡΠ°Π·Π»ΠΈΡΠ½ΡΡ ΠΌΠ°ΡΡΡΠ°Π±Π°Ρ , ΡΡΠΎ Π±ΠΎΠ»Π΅Π΅ ΡΠΎΠΎΡΠ²Π΅ΡΡΡΠ²ΡΠ΅Ρ ΠΏΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠΈΠΊΠ΅ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π° ΠΏΠΎΠ²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠΈΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΎΠ²ΡΡ ΠΈΠ½ΡΡΡΡΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΠΎΠ² ΠΈ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΠΎΠ². ΠΠ°ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅Ρ, ΠΌΠΈΠ½ΡΡΠ½ΡΠ΅ ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅ΡΠ²Π°Π»Ρ, ΡΠ°ΡΠΎΠ²ΡΠ΅, Π΄Π½Π΅Π²Π½ΡΠ΅, Π½Π΅Π΄Π΅Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠ΅, ΠΈ Ρ. Π΄. β ΠΡΠΈΠΌ. Π½Π°ΡΡΠ½. ΡΠ΅Π΄.
10
Robert J. Shiller.
11
Beauty Contest Metaphor.
12
Glocenius, Gassman, Neuhaus, Descartes, Thomasius, Wolff, Reid, Gall, Cuvier.
13
Edward Bradford Titchener.
14
Hermann Ebbinghaus, Georg Elias Muller, Franz Bretano, Carl Stumpf, Oswald Kulpe.
15
William James.
16
John Dewey, James Rowland Angell, Harvey Carr.
17
Edward Thorndike.
18
John Π. Watson.
19
Kerplunk Experiment.
20
Burrhus Frederic Skinner.
21
Skinner box.
22
Sigmund Freud.
23
Carl Jung.
24
Max Wertheimer.
25
Wolfgang Kohler.
26
Kurt Koffka.
27
Kurt Lewin.
28
Hierarchy of Needs Theory.
29
Motivation and Personality.
30
Β«The Magical Number Seven Plus or Minus Two: Some Limits on our Capacity for Processing InformationΒ».
31
ΠΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠ°Ρ ΠΏΡΠΈΡ ΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡ. / ΠΠ΅Ρ. Ρ ΡΡ. β ΠΡΠΈΠΌ. ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π².
32
Gustave Le Bon.
33
Hayek, von Mises, George Katona.
34
Erlich.
35
ΠΠ½ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΡΠ². β ΠΠ΅Ρ. Ρ ΡΡ. β ΠΡΠΈΠΌ. ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π².
36
Adam Smith, The Money Game.
37
Hershey.
38
The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money.
39
Odd lotters β ΡΡΠ΅ΠΉΠ΄Π΅ΡΡ, ΡΠΎΡΠ³ΡΡΡΠΈΠ΅ Π½Π΅ΡΡΠ°Π½Π΄Π°ΡΡΠ½ΡΠΌΠΈ Π»ΠΎΡΠ°ΠΌΠΈ. β ΠΡΠΈΠΌ. Π½Π°ΡΡΠ½. ΡΠ΅Π΄.
40
Drew Odd Lot Indexes Daily 1936β1958 Inclusive, Monthly 1920β1958 Inclusive).
41
The Art of Contrary Opinion.
42
Contrary Opinion.
43
A Strategy of Daily Stock Market Timing.
44
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.
45
Descartes Error.
46
Kahneman, Tversky.
47
Alais.
48
Cable
49
Breadth of market β Β«ΡΠΈΡΠΈΠ½Π° ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΠ°Β». ΠΠΎΠ»Ρ Π°ΠΊΡΠΈΠΉ, ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΠ²ΡΡΡΠΈΡ Π² Π΄Π²ΠΈΠΆΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠΈ ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΡΡΡ. ΠΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠΎΠΉ ΡΡΠΈΡΠ°Π΅ΡΡΡ ΡΠ°ΠΊΠ°Ρ Β«ΡΠΈΡΠΈΠ½Π° ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΠ°Β», ΠΊΠΎΠ³Π΄Π° 2/3 ΠΊΠΎΡΠΈΡΡΡΡΠΈΡ ΡΡ Π°ΠΊΡΠΈΠΉ Π² ΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΡΠΎΡΠ³ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠΉ ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΈΠΈ ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΠ²ΡΡΡ Π² ΠΎΠ΄Π½ΠΎΠ½Π°ΠΏΡΠ°Π²Π»Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠΌ Π΄Π²ΠΈΠΆΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠΈ ΠΊΡΡΡΠ° Π½Π° ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΠ΅, Π½Π°ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅Ρ, Π² ΠΏΠΎΠ΄ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅. β ΠΡΠΈΠΌ. ΡΠ΅Π΄.
50
ΠΡΠ°Π²ΠΈΠ»ΡΠ½Π΅Π΅: Β«ΠΡΠΎΠ³ΡΠ°ΠΌΠΌΠ½Π°Ρ ΡΠΎΡΠ³ΠΎΠ²Π»ΡΒ» β ΠΡΠΈΠΌ. Π½Π°ΡΡΠ½. ΡΠ΅Π΄.
51
Π‘ΠΠ₯ Gold Futures.
52
Momentum.
53
Relative Strength Index.
54
Rate of Change Indicator β ROC.
55
ΠΠΎΡΠ½Π΅Ρ β Π΄Π΅ΠΉΡΡΠ²ΠΈΡ Π»ΠΈΡΠ°, ΡΠΈΡΠΌΡ, Π³ΡΡΠΏΠΏΡ Π»ΠΈΡ, ΡΠΎΠ·Π΄Π°ΡΡΠΈΡ ΠΈΡΠΊΡΡΡΡΠ²Π΅Π½Π½ΡΠΉ Π΄Π΅ΡΠΈΡΠΈΡ ΡΠΎΠ²Π°ΡΠΎΠ² ΠΏΡΡΠ΅ΠΌ ΡΠΊΡΠΏΠΊΠΈ Π±ΠΈΡΠΆΠ΅Π²ΡΡ ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠΎΠ² ΠΈ ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠΎΠ²Π°ΡΠ° Ρ ΡΠ΅Π»ΡΡ Π·Π°Ρ Π²Π°ΡΠ° Π² ΡΠ²ΠΎΠΈ ΡΡΠΊΠΈ ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΡΠΎΠ»Ρ Π½Π°Π΄ Ρ ΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠΌ Π±ΠΈΡΠΆΠ΅Π²ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ° ΠΈ Π²Π·Π²ΠΈΠ½ΡΠΈΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠ΅Π½. β ΠΡΠΈΠΌ. ΡΠ΅Π΄.
56
Wedge β Β«ΠΊΠ»ΠΈΠ½Β» β ΡΠ΅ΡΠΌΠΈΠ½ ΡΠ΅Ρ Π½ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π°, ΠΎΠ±ΠΎΠ·Π½Π°ΡΠ°ΡΡΠΈΠΉ Π΄Π²ΠΈΠΆΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΡΠ΅Π½, ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°Π·ΡΡΡΠ΅Π΅ Π½Π° Π³ΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΊΠ΅ ΡΠΈΠ³ΡΡΡ ΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ³ΠΎΠ»ΡΠ½ΠΈΠΊΠ° Ρ ΠΎΡΡΡΡΠΌ ΡΠ³Π»ΠΎΠΌ β ΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΡ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠΎΠ² ΠΈ ΠΏΠ°Π΄Π΅Π½ΠΈΠΉ ΡΠ΅Π½Ρ Ρ ΠΏΠΎΡΡΠ΅ΠΏΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΠΌ ΡΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ΠΌ Π°ΠΌΠΏΠ»ΠΈΡΡΠ΄Ρ. β ΠΡΠΈΠΌ. ΡΠ΅Π΄.
57
Wedge, key reversals, island reversals.
58
Neckline.
59
Diamond.
60
Trailing stop.
61
The Psychology of Smart Investing.
62
Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders.
63
The ABC of Stock Market Speculation, S.A. Nelson.
64
The Stock Market Barometer, William Peter Hamilton.
65
Dow Theory, Robert Rhea.
66
Technical Analysis Trends, Edwards and McGhee.
67
The Art Contrary Thinking, H.B. Neil.
68
Drew Odd lot Indexes Daily 1936β1958 Inclusive, Garfield Drew.
69
New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, J.W.Wilder.
70
Contrary Opinion, R.E. Hadady.
71
Periodic and Asymptotic Solutions, Approximations by Series, Integral Invariants and Asymptotic Properties of Certain Solutions.
72
Long-temp Storage of Reservoirs.
73
Deterministic Non-periodic Flow, Edward Lorenz.
74
Forecasts of Futures Markets, Unbiased Markets, and Β«MartingaleΒ» Models, Mandelbrot.
75
Noah, Joseph and Operational Hydrology, Mandelbrot, Wallis.
76
Statistical Methods for Nonperiodic Cycles: From the Covariance to R/S.
77
When Can Price Be Arbitraged Efficiently? A Limit to the Validity of the Randm Walk and Martingale Models, Mandelbrot.
78
Period Thee Implies Chaos, James Yorke.
79
Simple Mathematical Models with Very Complicated Dynamics, Robert May
80
Bifurcations and Dynamic Complexity in Simple Ecological Models, May and Oster.
81
Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly's Wings in Brasil set off a Tornado in Texas? Edward Lorenz.